Chip Express, Lightspeed, Synplicity, and Tera Systems Team Up to Establish the “Structured ASIC Association”
A group of Structured ASIC manufacturers and EDA companies – Chip Express, Lightspeed, Synplicity, and Tera Systems – announced that they have formed the “Structured ASIC Association” (SAA). The founding members are collaborating to firmly establish Structured ASICs as a unique market segment and educate the industry about this new technology.
Launched February 11 by the SAA, the new Structured ASIC website (http://www.structuredasic.com/) was developed to provide a comprehensive source of information about Structured ASIC technology. The site provides direct access to the latest Structured ASIC news, gives detailed information about the technology, and explains the benefits associated with Structured ASICs.
As defined by the SAA, Structured ASICs are a new category of semiconductors targeted at customers who are looking for the fast-turn capabilities of FPGAs without their high unit cost, and those who want to take advantage of the relatively low unit costs of ASICs without paying high NREs. Structured ASIC devices reduce much of the up-front NRE and shorten development time by using pre-diffused base metal layers to implement logic cells, memory and I/O common to many designs. Custom logic for a specific application is then implemented in the final few layers of metal, requiring far fewer mask layers for each design.
The formation of this organization provides added confirmation that the ASIC market, and its associated methodologies, is far, very far, from sailing off into the sunset, as many well-respected industry experts have stated, in recent times. Maybe these supposed experts should consider retirement, or at a minimum, think before speaking. The reality, as In-Stat/MDR has stated many times, is quite the opposite. Without ASIC capability, independent of form, there would no longer be any differentiators between products and/or the companies that manufacture them. Three cheers for the SAA. Maybe this time, due to the relative newness of the technology, standards and infrastructure, will be done the right way, and not forced down everyone’s throat by one or two big companies!
Sonic Network and Emblaze Semiconductor Partner to Provide High Quality Audio Synthesis to Mobile Multimedia Appliances
Sonic Network, Inc., a music industry veteran providing audio synthesis technology and high quality instrument wavetables, and Emblaze Semiconductor, a provider of mobile multimedia and application ICs, announced they have entered into an agreement to license Sonic's wavetable technology for use in both current and future ICs for mobile multimedia appliances, including support for polyphonic MIDI capabilities for the mobile phone market.
To power today's most advanced multimedia devices, Emblaze Semiconductor selected Sonic's general MIDI sound bank that is compact in size and of high quality. Sonic's wavetable technology running on Emblaze Semiconductor multimedia chips eliminates the need for an external MIDI chip, enabling Emblaze Semiconductor to offer customers a high quality MIDI experience while lowering BOM (bill of material) costs. "Sonic Network has considerable expertise in DLS and other wavetables formats and how they relate to the synthesizer utilizing them. Sonic knows how to get the highest quality sound with the lowest (memory and processing) footprint," said Jennifer Hruska, president of Sonic Network. "Our expertise in ringtone technology and wireless devices also enabled us to provide valuable consulting and integration services, something Emblaze Semiconductor was looking for."
This announcement by Emblaze Semiconductor and Sonic Network is another example of the future for our industry. Partnerships and intellectual property already represent the only viable business model to take the industry to the next level, regarding the development of new technologies and products, so as to meet both cost and time-to-market constraints, which, as we are all aware, are today the most critical factors for future success, for both the industry, as a whole, as well as the companies contained therein.
- Jerry Worchel - Senior Analyst
, E-mail:jworchel@reedbusiness.com
Gigabit Ethernet and 10 Gigabit Ethernet Switch Shipments Roar Ahead in 4Q03
Port shipments of Gigabit Ethernet (GbE) and 10 Gigabit Ethernet (10GbE) switches showed extremely strong growth in 4Q03, capping a year of an overall robust rise in shipments. Overall, total GbE shipments rose 28.3%, to 4,967.1 million ports, while 10GbE shipments rose an astounding 299.5%, to 5,133.0 ports for the quarter. These shipment figures highlight an increasing trend toward the deployment of higher bandwidth switches, by both SMB and enterprise customers.
Diving into the data reveals some interesting facts about the shift to GbE and 10GbE. Segmenting the shipment data by OSI layer (L2, L3, L4-7), and equipment form factor (Fixed vs. Modular), we discover that the segment of the GbE market showing the fastest growth rate is the L2 Fixed category, which was up 61.4% during 4Q03, after a rise of 39.3% in 3Q03. What is particularly interesting is that this pick-up in shipment largely started occurring in the second half of 2003, suggesting the start of an overall trend that will continue going forward. What the data also suggests is that it is Gigabit to the Desktop (GTTD) that is largely driving the rise in L2 Fixed GbE shipments. This is particularly high-lighted by the fact that L2 Fixed UNMANAGED GbE port shipments grew a blistering 143.4% in 4Q03, after an eye-popping 454.3% in 3Q03, albeit starting from a very small initial base of shipments. The trend toward GTTD was begun with PC OEMs – such as Dell, HP and IBM - bundling GbE connectivity with their business PCs. It now appears that customers are following through with purchases of GbE desktop switches to hook up all of those GbE enabled PCs starting to appear in their corporate networks.
As mentioned, 10GbE port shipments also rose dramatically in 4Q03, following an 89.5% rise in 3Q03 and a 73.8% rise in 2Q03. 10GbE switches are still mostly deployed in “niche” applications – research institutions and certain leading edge Korean broadband service providers. However, with the continuing drop in ASPs, and the increased need to backhaul multiple GTTD links, In-Stat/MDR expects shipments of 10GbE switches to continue their strong growth rates, at least in the near term.
Mobile Diagnostix Takes the Pain out of Smartphone Tech Support
If you’re like me and have ever made a lifelong friend with a tech support representative while troubleshooting a “blue screen of death” error message on your PC, just wait until your next cell phone goes on the fritz. That snazzy little phone in your future is likely to have an onboard operating system such as Symbian, Palm, Microsoft, or Linux and, while it will come with plenty of cool applications, it’s also much more likely to bring the kind of technical support challenges that most of us associate with the Ninth Circle of Hell and… well… the Windows OS.
In-Stat/MDR forecasts that sales of smartphones with operating systems will grow at a CAGR of 94.5% over the next five years, totaling nearly 325 million annual shipments by 2008. With numbers like these, is there any reprieve from unrecoverable file errors while you’re driving down the freeway? I’m not saying that the smartphone operating systems are unstable or anything, but think of it this way: smartphone processing and memory capabilities are at roughly the level of PCs in 1998, and the proliferation of different handsets with thousands of available third-party applications over the next few years will make most current cell phone models look like your grandfather’s Oldsmobile. And you can bet that the wireless carriers are sweating bullets on this one, too – smartphones drive up to three times the tech support calls of traditional cell phones, with average handling times (AHT) of up to three times those of current levels. That increased data ARPU doesn’t look so good when you’re a carrier hiring highly technical new CSRs by the bushel.
A new Canadian firm, Mobile Diagnostix, looks to ease the pain of this growing customer support crisis. The company partners with wireless service providers and integrates its Mobile Care solution with the carrier’s existing customer relationship management (CRM) systems, over-the-air (OTA) software activation systems, and the smartphones deployed in the subscriber base. The Mobile Care platform allows CSRs to pull up a profile of the smartphone using the OTA system, including the phone’s hardware specs, OS version, software applications, and drivers, and to diagnose any potential problems automatically. Mobile Care then accesses a device-specific knowledge base to troubleshoot and allows for automated software updates using the OTA platform. Mobile Diagnostix currently supports devices using BREW, Java, Microsoft, Palm, RIM, Symbian, and SyncML.
This approach offers five key benefits:
Speeds up the diagnostic process, minimizing tedious troubleshooting steps such as “okay, now I need you to reboot your phone for the third time and tell me what you see.”
Automates patches and fixes, reducing the likelihood of making a trip to the carrier’s retail store or packaging up your phone in a UPS box and saying a Hail Mary.
Increases the rate of first-call resolution so that you don’t have to get on a first-name basis with everyone on third shift at the call center.
Reduces the level of CSR training and experience required to handle complex issues.
Provides a feedback loop on common problems to smartphone hardware vendors and application developers.
Sounds like a no-brainer, right? Well, anyone who tells you that integration is a snap with CRM, OTA, and a bazillion different mobile devices might want to reconsider after they’ve been through the experience a couple of times. Aside from the challenges of initial integration and keeping a rapidly changing knowledge base up to date, however, this is the kind of solution that will be invaluable in making smartphones ready for prime time.
Renesas Development of Power Reduction Techniques for Next-Generation Cellular Phone System LSIs
Renesas Technology Corp., Hitachi, Ltd., and SuperH, Inc. announced the development of power consumption reduction techniques for high-performance CPU cores, and a standby technique enabling quick recovery from the standby state to the active state while keeping standby current low, for use in system LSIs for cellular phones and similar applications.
Trial production using these techniques in system LSI for next-generation cellular phones confirmed the achievement of CPU core performance per unit power of 4500 MIPS/W, and recovery to the active state in the short time of 3 milliseconds (max.) while holding standby current down to 100 uA or less. As process technology has become finer in recent years, the integration level has improved and logic scale has increased. System LSIs, which implement most system functions in a single chip, have shown a particularly remarkable increase in logic scale, and the greater power consumption associated with higher speed and performance has become a major problem.
As we have become increasingly aware in recent years, IC power consumption has, in more cases than not, become more critical a factor than performance. While this parameter is particularly applicable in the world of portable applications, it is just as important in line-powered applications. This announcement by Renesas, Hitachi and SuperH, is one of many that are addressing this issue, with more n the way.
- Jerry Worchel - Senior Analyst
, E-mail:jworchel@reedbusiness.com
We do it all the time when it comes to Bill Gates personal wealth. Who among us hasn’t mused about how we’d dip into the $30 or so billion to buy our favorite sports franchise or that small island we’ve always wanted?
Wall Street is no different, but instead of thinking about how Mr. Gates should spend his personal hoard, they’re more concerned with Microsoft and the mountainous pile of cash it’s accumulated (approximately $52 billion as of December 31st, 2003).
Much of the speculation is justified from a shareholder value perspective. Microsoft has, for most its history, refused to pay out big dividends (it only just paid its first dividend in January 2003) and many believe this is something a company as big as Microsoft, in an industry that is maturing, should do more of.
It’s no different with acquisitions. Immediately after Comcast announced its hostile takeover bid for Disney, many on Wall Street started speculating about alternative bids, with many predicting Microsoft could be a potential suitor.
We believe it won’t happen, and this is why:
Microsoft Doesn’t Make Big Acquisitions. At least not relative to its own size and purchasing power. If the company ever was going to buy Disney, it would have been in 2000 when AOL and Time Warner merged. Back then, Microsoft was spending big on partnerships and investing in other companies and saw this new pairing as potentially its biggest threat. Even then, the company never did a “bet the farm” type of acquisition. Instead, the company has done smaller acquisitions and has generated most of its growth organically through both leveraging its strength in operating systems and big-time investments of internally generated cash, as only a company of this stature can.
Focus is on Software. The company’s management has repeatedly stated that it is intent on remaining mainly a software company, and despite some big time diversions into things such as gaming consoles (which is, at the core, an entertainment software play, at least in the long run), the company has stuck to its knitting. Don’t expect it to get nervous and jump at a Disney-like acquisition opportunity simply because it feels it has to do something because others are.
Its Content Play Is to Become the “Indispensable Partner”. Microsoft’s strategy for content is to become a necessary partner to the big players, be it the actual studios in Hollywood or the distribution networks such as Comcast. The company’s Windows Media 9 platform provides a true end-to-end streaming platform for the high definition and IP broadcasting world and it is gaining traction. An acquisition of a competitor such as Disney would create a significant backlash to Microsoft and its technology in the premium content world.
We expect Microsoft to continue to create tools for content providers and play in selective content markets such as gaming. The company’s main goal is to add value to its core operating system products, and much of its future focus is on expanding the PC’s reach throughout the home. Expect it to continue to grow its alliances with content providers, such as its recent partnership with Disney on DRM tools, and avoid spending its war chest on a big-time purchase.
So Cingular Won The Right To Purchase AT&T For $41 Billion In Cash. What Does All This Mean For Wireless?
First, and probably not a surprise for anyone, the sale of AT&T Wireless indicated that there were just too many cellular carriers in the US. With this change we have one less carrier, but the number of carriers is still quite large. More consolidation will be likely this year. Nextel and Sprint are companies to watch.
Three main suitors courted AT&T: Cingular, Vodafone and NTT DoCoMo. In the end, Cingular represented the best opportunity for both AT&T and itself and was my pick to win the race. Both companies are generally under performers, and both will benefit from each other’s advantages. The new company will be better positioned than either of these companies was individually.
AT&T brings with it a strong business base, with higher ARPU users. Cingular has the consumer audience and a better GSM infrastructure that AT&T desperately needs. Both companies have higher levels of churn than average, but the combined network should help to reduce coverage holes that can only help to reduce churn.
While Cingular won the AT&T prize, there were two other contenders in this competition, NTT DoCoMo and Vodafone; both are global powerhouses, and both made a smart decision to give up the fight for AT&T. I believe this is really a turning point for these companies, as they now realize that wireless markets in different regions of the world are, in fact, very unique. I think both companies have been burned a bit by their W-CDMA expansion plans in their home regions, and both now realize that a cookie-cutter W-CDMA approach could be a disaster in the US. Certainly NTT DoCoMo’s W-CDMA plans for AT&T show that NTT was somewhat uninformed about the US market. I think both NTT and Vodafone might try to stick closer to home in the near future, although both companies are prepared to expand more globally when the time is right. It’s already being rumored that Vodafone is looking for another US company to buy, but with Cingular and AT&T Wireless out of the picture, and T-Mobile “not for sale” the pickings are slim.
NTT will be retreating from its investment in AT&T Wireless and I think, will write off its $3 billion loss in AT&T as a learning experience. It now looks like the planned W-CDMA deployments in 4 cities that NTT was pushing for (scaled back from 13 cities in the initial announcement) is now dead. Both Ericsson and Nortel won the contracts to supply the needed infrastructure equipment for these deployments, but at this point it’s unlikely that most equipment has been shipped. The US W-CDMA equipment is unique because it operates at 1.9 GHz, thereby requiring a longer lead-time.
In general, Cingular has been rather conservative on its 3G plans to date, instead putting most of its eggs in EDGE. After the AT&T win announcement, Cingular did say that the AT&T purchase would help it with the deployment of advanced data services, but it is unclear what this really means. My guess, because AT&T does have many business customers, is that Cingular will deploy W-CDMA sooner than it had originally planned, but probably not nearly as soon as AT&T was prepared to do for NTT.
As for current infrastructure equipment, when the two companies merge, there will be some overlap, but this isn’t likely to be a major problem. Both AT&T and Cingular have been building out their GSM networks, with AT&T getting its infrastructure equipment from Ericsson and Nortel, and Cingular getting it from these two as well as Nokia and Siemens. When the two companies merge, some infrastructure equipment will be redundant, but having additional base stations will be helpful for EDGE once that is rolled out on a wider scale. Overall, Cingular is well positioned in terms of its infrastructure and available spectrum. My guess is that it will take 6 months for the two companies to figure out exactly what infrastructure equipment must be moved around, and until this time, infrastructure purchases by Cingular are likely to be put on hold.
Cisco Systems and TANDBERG Partner To Bring Video To An IP Telephone System Near You!
Today, Cisco Systems and TANDBERG announced an industry breakthrough for IP-based solutions that will make video communications as simple as any IP phone call!
For the past several years, the world of videoconferencing has been striving to get to this point, and today’s announcement combines two key industry leaders and introduces “shipping” products that really fulfill this long-sought-after promise.
It’s been no secret that TANDBERG has been working closely with Cisco Systems. TANDBERG’s CEO, Andrew Miller, and much of his key management staff, were formerly with Cisco. TANDBERG has been a member of Cisco’s AVVID partner program for several years. AVVID stands for Architecture for Video and Voice Integrated with Data, and is Cisco’s architecture for building all-in-one networks that can deliver voice, video, and data using a unified network based on Internet Protocol, or IP.
Today’s announcement breaks the ground for long-term growth in the video communications industry, because TANDBERG has modified several of their popular “end point” systems so that the user interface is the same as the user interface on Cisco’s best-selling IP voice telephone handsets.
In order to accomplish this feat, TANDBERG’s engineers worked closely with Cisco’s software gurus, to enable TANDBERG’s end points to connect directly to Cisco CallManager release 4.0, the award winning Cisco IP PBX.
So what does this actually mean for the typical business communications user? I think it means quite a bit.
Cisco’s IP phones make it possible for an employee to literally carry their IP handset around with them. When they plug it in to a convenient Ethernet jack, all of their phone calls automatically ring right there. The intelligence in the Cisco network takes care of all the “grunt work” in the background.
Imagine, now, that you can move your slim-and-sexy TANDBERG 1000 LCD videoconferencing appliance to any location in the company, plug it in, and have instant video capabilities.
In the old world of videoconferencing, the equipment was tied to a specific physical location, and required IT managers to reconfigure network routing tables to move it anywhere. Today’s announcement moves the entire video communications industry up into the new world of intelligent IP networks.
Besides being able to move the video end point around, these systems support all the typical features of a voice phone, including HOLD, TRANSFER, CONFERENCE, and Directory Services. If a voice call comes in, you can TRANSFER the call to your video appliance, simply by pushing a softkey on the IP voice phone.
This really is the first time that a video appliance has been tightly integrated into an existing voice IP PBX application, and it should create a wider market for video calls, by breaking down the “user interface” barrier.
TANDBERG has applied these features to two end points. The TANDBERG 1000 is an all-in-one videoconferencing appliance, which includes Liquid Crystal Display (LCD) and a remote control unit that provides the same softkeys as a Cisco IP phone handset. The TANDBERG 550 is a set-top unit for business-quality video using an existing monitor in an individual office or small meeting room
These new, TANDBERG end points that interface with Cisco’s CallManager Release 4 will actually make video communications as easy to use, and as easy to move, as Cisco’s IP voice phones. It is a real breakthrough for the video industry!
The “I’s” Have It, FCC Makes a Bold Decision on IP
In a bold move on February 12th, the FCC voted 3 to 1 for Free World Dialup to be granted an exemption from regulation. Free World Dialup, owned by Pulver.com, is a free service with more than 150,000 members. Commissioner Powell agreed that Free World Dialup’s free services are not a form of telecommunications services because they are solely transmitted over the Internet, like e-mail communications. More information on the ruling, including details will be released on the FCC website next week.
This does not however resolve pending AT&T and Vonage petitions, in which both of these service providers use a combination of the Internet and the local phone network to connect calls. There are also many unresolved issues on fees, surcharges, and emergency situations.
Other unresolved issues include:
Inter-carrier Compensation
CALEA, or wiretapping capabilities
9-1-1/E9-1-1 Service Capabilities
Inter-carrier compensation is a process where Carrier A uses another carrier’s network (Carrier B) to complete calls or carry traffic. Carrier A must pay Carrier B a fee for the use of Carrier A’s network. In situations such as those where AT&T and Vonage may be interconnecting with another carrier’s network to complete IP calls, the FCC has not made any definite decisions.
CALEA or the Communications Assistance for Law Enforcement Act is a mandate that allows local law enforcement and the FBI to tap phone conversations on court-approved cases. Because IP traffic is beginning to flourish, this issue is starting to raise some questions. Many IP voice carriers are cooperating with law enforcement for these requests, but there is not a regulated standard that is enforcing these IP voice carriers to comply.
IP voice services are also raising major concerns for emergency communications such as 9-1-1 and enhanced 9-1-1 (E9-1-1). Because an IP phone can move from jack to jack, there are issues of knowing the calling location of IP phone users. There are solutions that are beginning to pop up with carriers such as Cisco and others, but again there is no regulated standard in place. Many IP voice carriers are dealing with this issue on a customized basis.
Time will only tell how the IP voice world will play out. Stay tuned for more on this issue.
For more information on the NEW Vertical Market Deep Dive services, feel free to contact the analyst below. You can also visit http://www.instat.com/descriptions/svc-verts.asp for a look In-Stat/MDR’s vertical market views.
