IPTV in China
Jason Yin – Managing Director, In-Stat China

There is a potentially huge subscriber base for IPTV in China. Analog TV is very popular in Chinese households in downtown or rural areas. There were over 360 million TV users by the end of 2004, and over 100 million cable TV users. Almost every family has at least one set, and some city households have shown the trend of two or three sets at one home. Additionally, there were over 20 million broadband users in China by the end of 2004, where ADSL accounted for about 70% of the pie.

Because the installed base of TVs is so much higher than that of PCs in China, IPTV services such as TV Gaming and TV Education may help drive Chinese families toward widespread use of IPTV. An additional finding indicates that the Olympic Games being held in China in 2008 may also contribute to substantial growth in IPTV services during the forecast period. Although In-Stat feels that growth will be minimal between 2005 and 2008 and that there are currently many barriers still to overcome, there is evidence of substantial opportunity toward the end of the forecast.

This presentation assesses what IPTV means for China from the perspectives of Service Providers, Internet Content Providers (ICPs), and end-users, and discusses impacts of technology and policy. Business models, market drivers and constraints (including piracy) are also discussed. Forecasts include IPTV subscribers, and unit and revenue projections for Set Top Boxes (STBs).

With an expanding appetite for digital entertainment, coupled with increasing levels of disposable income and a growing, digitally literate generation, China ’s base of internet users has exhibited astounding growth over the past several years. The Chinese Internet industry, once mired by doubts and uncertainty about content, accessibility and payments etc., has since been rejuvenated by the astonishing popularity of online games.

The purpose of this presentation is to provide an overview of the online gaming industry in China, present the big picture of China’s online game industry, discuss domestic regulation and policy issues, summarize technology and infrastructure requirements, discover user demand, outline the industry ecosystem, describe core business models applied and identify emerging market trends. The presentation will also reveal In-Stat’s forecast and projected CAGR for online gaming subscribers in China .

IP-Based Video Service in Asia Pacific
Bryan Wang – Managing Director, In-Stat Asia Pacific

While the growth momentum of other broadband value-add services markets remained stagnant, the Asia Pacific IP video services market swelled to US$131.5 million in 2004. The initial growth has generated much interest globally. Its low penetration rate, rising GDP, and increased spending dynamic all suggest good market potential during the forecast period (2004–2010). It is expected that IP-based video services market revenues in Asia will continue at a solid compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 78% from 2004 to 2010.

Geared toward video service providers, telecom service providers, TV and telecom equipment suppliers, set-top-box manufacturers, and component manufacturers (IC and CE products), this presentation will cover the following:

• Asia Pacific broadband market growth/penetration
• Market challenges and opportunities for IP video service
• Asia Pacific IP video subscriber forecast
• Asia Pacific IP video service revenue forecast by segment
• IPTV
• IP Video-on-Demand (IP VOD)
• Movie
• Adult
• TV
• Others
• IP video service market contribution by country
• Relevant equipment/technology analysis
• Key market players

Digital Music in China
Jason Yin – Managing Director, In-Stat China

The value of the online music piracy market in China is estimated to have been around US$220 million in 2004, accounting for 35% of the country’s total music piracy market value of US$630 million. However, control over the digital music piracy situation in China will continue to increase: by 2006, online piracy will not be China ’s major obstacle to realizing the country’s potential in the digital music market.

The music industry’s value chain is transforming in China today, from a traditional physical value chain to the digital music value chain. By 2008, China will be one of the most important digital music markets worldwide, with legitimate online service revenues of US$222 million, the equivalent of an annual download of 1.8 billion songs. Installed portable music devices will exceed 150 million units at the end of 2008.

While barriers remain for this market, In-Stat feels that there is a bright future with a real turning point in 2007. This presentation will reveal industry structure, market dynamics, barriers and drivers for the digital music opportunity in China . Piracy issues, revenue and device forecasts, and content issues will also be discussed.

Mobile TV in China
Anty Zheng – Research Director, In-Stat China

There are two different regulatory bodies focused on mobile TV development in China : The Ministry of Information Industry (MII) is focused on mobile TV over a cellular network, while The State Administration of Radio, Film and Television (SARFT) handles the broadcast network and contents . This separated administration of the telecom network and TV program content is leading to contradictions in service development and an unclear business model. However, both regularly stress the development of mobile TV in their Eleventh Five-Year Plan.

In-Stat believes that DVB-H is likely to be widely adopted in China , and that SDMB, TDMB and MediaFLO will have market opportunities as well. All these technologies are actively being tested in different places and are receiving positive results. Meanwhile, China is working on a self-owned technology proposed by Tsinghua University , Shanghai Communication University and the Academy of Broadcasting Sciences .

In this presentation, In-Stat will reveal its forecast for mobile subscribers in China , which are projected to increase to 548 million by 2008. In addition, mobile TV subscribers will grow to 84 million by 2009 with a CAGR of 315%. The presentation will also discuss why In-Stat believes the market will experience a turning point in 2007.

Cellular vs. Wireless Broadband in Asia/Pacific
Bryan Wang – Managing Director, In-Stat Asia Pacific

Asia , as the most dynamic market in the world, is also the fastest growing cellular market globally, for operators and equipment and handset manufacturers. By 2004, there were over 790.0 million mobile users (inclusive of PHS) in Asia Pacific with a total revenue of US$179.75 billion. It is expected that this market will continue to grow significantly in the next five to ten years, where Asia may become the largest market for mobile telecommunications in the world.

In the meantime, various wireless broadband technologies are also available in Asia . Wi-Fi service has been increasingly popular in the market place; while even more advanced WiMAX service is getting its momentum as the technology is maturing.

This presentation will give a comprehensive overview on the state of the Asia Pacific wireless communications industry and address the following:

• The total wireless communication market in Asia Pacific
• Asia Pacific cellular services market forecast
• 2G/2.5G (GSM/CDMA)
• 3G (WCDMA/CDMA 2000/TD-SCDMA)
• PHS
• Asia Pacific Wi-Fi services market forecast
• Consumer Wi-Fi
• Business Wi-Fi
• Asia Pacific WiMAX services market forecast
• Comparison of different wireless services (cellular vs. wireless broadband)
• Market opportunities for equipment/component vendors
• Cellular (mobile networks)
• Wi-Fi (access point / wireless routers / adapters / etc.)
• WiMAX (base station / CPE)

Data for this presentation is derived from the following In-Stat reports:

• Asia Wireless Annual Report: Subscribers, Handsets, and Infrastructure
• The Future of Personal Handyphone Services (PHS) in Asian Markets
• WiMAX in Asia
• Asia Pacific Business Wi-Fi Market Trends Analysis
• Asia Pacific Consumer Wi-Fi Market Trends Analysis